报告时间：2026年4月9日（周四）上午10:00

报告地点：气象楼423会议室

主 持 人：周波涛 教授

报告题目：How close are IPCC regions to their 1.5° and 2°C equivalent warming limits?

报告专家：Francis Zwiers 教授

专家简介:

Francis Zwiers，加拿大皇家科学院院士，美国地球物理联合会（AGU）和美国气象学会（AMS）会士。加拿大维多利亚大学太平洋气候影响联合中心（PCIC）荣誉教授，曾任PCIC主任、加拿大气候变化与环境部加拿大气候建模与分析中心（CCCma）高级研究科学家兼负责人以及气候研究部主任。发表了200余篇论文和书籍章节，在Nature、Science、及其子刊发表多篇文章，连续多年为汤普森-路透社高被引科学家。曾担任IPCC第四次评估报告的协调主要作者和IPCC第五次评估报告主席团成员及第一工作组副主席。曾任Journal of Climate的主编和International Journal of Climatology副主编。目前是Journal of Climate 和 Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere的副主编，以及跨学科杂志Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography的联合主编。

报告摘要：

Global temperatures during the 2015-2024 decade averaged more than 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, yet warming patterns and the remaining ‘warming budgets’ under the Paris Agreement 1.5°C and 2°C limits remain poorly quantified in many regions due to insufficient preindustrial period observational data, particularly in many developing regions. Here, we quantify regional warming between 1850–1900 and 2016-2025 in all IPCC regions and attribute it to specific external forcing agents using a Bayesian framework that constrains multi-model simulations with observations, enabling robust warming estimates even in data-sparse regions. We find that most land areas have warmed by more than 1°C above pre-industrial levels during the past decade, with high-latitude regions exceeding 2.5°C. Approximately 91% of the regional warming expected under 1.5°C global warming has already occurred, and about 70% under 2°C. Attribution confidence is highest in low-latitude tropical regions, including much of Africa, where internal variability is low, while high-latitude regions show greater uncertainty。